فیلم سمپوزیوم وسایل نقلیه خودکار: سخنرانی افتتاحیه

Title:Autonomous Vehicles Symposium | Opening Keynote

در ۶ اکتبر ۲۰۱۷، APA و سازمان های شریک آن – لیگ ملی شهرها، مؤسسه بروکینگز، مرکز حمل و نقل Eno، آزمایشگاه تحرک و دانشگاه جورج میسون/Mobility E3 – گرد هم آمدند تا یک کتاب بازی برای شهرها و مناطق در مورد همه چیزهای مستقل ایجاد کنند. وسایل نقلیه (AV). کتاب بازی و دستور کار برای تحقیقات بیشتر مشخص می کند که چگونه این جوامع می توانند مزایا را به حداکثر برسانند و پیامدهای منفی بالقوه مرتبط با استقرار وسایل نقلیه خودران را به حداقل برسانند. جف تاملین از NelsonNygaard در سخنرانی افتتاحیه خود، با ایجاد یک زمینه مشترک برای وضعیت فناوری خودروهای خودمختار و چشم‌انداز موفقیت روز، لحن آینده‌نگر و رویایی را برای بحث‌های روز تنظیم کرد. بحث های پانل بعدی را تماشا کنید: Equity and Access: https://youtu.be/fNn-cIdILL8
شبکه حمل و نقل: https://youtu.be/25EBRfzLyTM
کاربری زمین و محیط ساخت: https://youtu.be/EFY1M6RQh9o

درباره این رویداد و کاری که APA در مورد AVs انجام می دهد بیشتر بدانید: https://www.planning.org/research/av/

انجمن برنامه ریزی آمریکا: https://www.planning.org/
لیگ ملی شهرها: http://www.nlc.org/
موسسه بروکینگز: https://www.brookings.edu/
مرکز حمل و نقل Eno: https://www.enotrans.org/
آزمایشگاه تحرک: https://mobilitylab.org/
دانشگاه جورج میسون/Mobility E3: https://www2.gmu.edu/ (برچسب‌ها برای ترجمه حمل و نقل

قسمتی از متن فیلم: So I want to start my introduction of our next speaker by giving you a little bit of instruction and maybe it’s just because always wanted to be a teacher and that is when you listen to him and when you engage in conversations over the course of this these sets of panels

We’re really looking to you this afternoon to be identifying what are the things that cities and regions ought to be doing on this topic and what are the things that need for the research what are the things that need further inquiry and development what frameworks do we

Need what tools do we need going forward and we’re going to ask that question again and again as we go through the panels the first panel will be on equity and access but I think that you will find that there are common threads that are going to run through all of these

Whether the transformative impacts on other sectors how will transit be affected whether it will be more of a benefit and how do we get the benefits and safety and access and so to start this conversation we have Jeff’s Tumlin who is the director of strategy for Nelson Nygaard who has really given a

Lot of thought to the question of how do we deal with these effects of this transportation how do we sort of wrap our heads around the transformative effect and I’m going to steal one of your lines which is that you know when we converted from the from horses and

Buggies we called cars horseless carriages and we tended to sort of get stuck in that old paradigm and I think the challenge to us is to get unstuck as we look at automated vehicles and mobility rather than thinking of them as being driverless cars and with that Jeff

I’m gonna hand it over to you to really stir us up and get us going thank you so who would have thought a year ago that I would be spending my time at automotive technology conferences right crazy and yet they’re really fun um and also really really scary but there’s

Also another aspect of them which is you know when you go to these conferences like all the people there think all of this is brand new and exciting and it’s really not at all Hyperloop was first patented in 1867 and almost everything that we’re imagining this world of over there in this world

Of new mobility and new cities was basically all completely imagined in the 1933 39 and 64 World’s Fair exhibits called Futurama sponsored by the General Motors Corporation by far the most visited industrial exhibits in the history of the world and amazing right complete new vision of the city of the

Future with a chicken in every pot and a General Motors car in every garage and since the 1950s all of the detail at least theoretically of autonomous vehicle technology was basically worked out and people believed that it was just around the corner so this is from 1957

And of course the vision today the technology is kind of the same the only thing that is different is of course the board game in the car what’s theory oh come on the board game has been replaced you know by the video console and you’ll notice also the children are gone and

The product design is by Apple Computer and the people are sort of vaguely multi-ethnic right but other than that like that technology is kind of the same so so what does this mean well autonomous vehicles are real and it is true that there are a lot of problems

That they can solve like and I’m no fool about them so you know there’s over 30,000 Americans a year died because we let distracted humans hurl themselves at each other 2-ton you know death suits right it’s insane like the the safety benefits are pretty significant um the fact that you

Know in most of our cities oh you know about 30% of our land areas parking that 80% of parking demand goes away profound change in the economy of cities um there is yes at least on the highway and particularly for Freight some significant space efficiency improvements that we can get by cramming

Cars closer together so you know good and lots of interesting things happening in terms of first and last mile connectivity particularly important as we suburban eyes poverty and dramatically increased mobility costs for low-income households and deny them paths out of poverty and also really useful for people with disabilities and

Children and seniors who today have significantly limited mobility options we can really improve those stuff right so good good but one thing that autonomous vehicles will not do although it’s been much promised to us is somehow solve the traffic congestion problem right a little bit more efficiency but autonomous vehicles are no different

Than adding another lane to the highway to solve our congestion problem because congestion is not an infrastructure or a technology problem congestion is an economic problem and is only susceptible to economic solutions so no we do not like congestion it makes us sad we demand the road we gets widened we make

Big investment in widening the roadway and what happens it changes people’s behavior it also changes land value and I would argue that our primary business in the transportation world is not mobility the business that we are in is rearranging and creating land value and so with faster driving it means oh honey

Why don’t we move to that bigger cheaper house farther away because we can still get to our jobs in the same amount of time faster driving means more people drive which means you have congestion and the spiral continual circling around and yet we somehow believe that oh just one more

Lane this time we’ll finally solve our congestion problem and if that doesn’t work well autonomous vehicles and well if that doesn’t work we’ll just put the cars in the sky right no we’re not gonna solve the traffic congestion problem in fact we may greatly exacerbate it as we

Unleash levels of induced demand we’ve never seen before in part by reducing the financial cost of mobility but more importantly eliminating the time cost because if you’re in your Google RV with the waterbed and the entertainment console and right the racquetball court right in your car why not live three

Hours away from your work so another great concern that we have is that is the urban efficiency of our transportation systems right traffic capacity is a limited renewable resource and in cities it’s all about the geometric efficiency of how we use our streets it takes about 10 times as much

Space to move somebody in a car then on a bike on foot in a bus in a train any other mode of transportation I love driving but I know every time I get in my car i displace nine other people who are not able to use the transportation

System and whether you’re driving alone in a car or in an uber with a driver or in the uber without the driver you’re still taking up the same amount of space and Bruce showers research in New York City has shown that New York City has been losing about 10% of its bus

Ridership every year since 2014 largely as a result of uber and lyft being a lot more convenient and door-to-door than sitting outside in the hundred degree humidity or sleet waiting for the public bus New York City’s transportation system is moving fewer and fewer people each year even as New York is growing

And the demand on the transportation system is getting greater and this is not because cars are bad it’s because of their geometric inefficiency and efficiency that autonomous vehicles already are starting to unleash on our cities simply as a result of uber and lyft and of course don’t get me started

About the public health outcomes of ubiquitous door-to-door mobility why ever walk if your Google pod will take you from every door to every door and if that’s happening why not reduce the sidewalk widths or eliminate some crosswalks so that we can fit more autonomous uber vehicles into our cities

And just as happened in the late 1920s and early 1930s when General Motors and triple-a criminalized walking for the first time because that was necessary in order to create more speed in cities which was necessary to sell more cars autonomous vehicles still are struggling with the urban stop sign controlled

Intersection and why would anyone wait like an idiot at the corner for the green light you know when it’s hot and humid or cold and sleet II when you know that the autonomous vehicle safety protocol will automatically stop for you if you step into the street further criminalization

Of walking on our current trajectory is inevitable because the autonomous vehicle system will not work in cities without it pop quiz who’s investing the most in autonomous vehicle technology you all know this who Google Google what’s Google’s revenue model they sell information right they what is the revenue model advertising 95% of

Google’s parent company alphabet 95 percent of their revenue is advertising so why is this information and data company investing in autonomous vehicle technology why would this be like they do search why are they the ones that are investing well it’s because the autonomous vehicle will be by far the

Most powerful medium for advertising in the history of advertising and the tech ecology is already there right if the driver no longer needs to pay attention to the road and the vehicle knows who the occupants are it knows where they are where they’re going and they’re trapped and the vehicle of course has

You know the occupants credit-card information right the only thing you’re gonna pay for in the future of mobility is to turn the friggin ads off right this is the Minority Report vision of the future and imagine the social implications of this so in addition to being completely inundated by ads at all

Time you can exclude traveling with certain people so I only travel with people with a 4.5 star rating or better or I only travel with people of my ethnicity the technology companies can make money off of our social preferences so why not never interact with somebody

Different than you are or less than you are and the technologists are excited by this prospect go to their conferences and look at their cost models right the Kinsey Institute has done some great analysis of the finances of the future of mobility and that gets even scarier

Because it means that many of the things that we take for granted today like public transit are at risk unless public transit takes the lead so another thing that’s funny at these Auto conferences is is just you know as Kelly was saying about the you know this this thinking

That all this is is a horseless carriage automotive manufacturers don’t realize that their product has radically changed they’ve been relying since the 1920s on selling a commodity based upon a myth that purchasing a car brings you freedom and autonomy and social status and sex that myth dies

The minute the steering wheel goes away if there’s no steering wheel there’s no delusion of control and what they haven’t realized yet is that the product for autonomous vehicles is not an object nor is even mobility the only people who are going to make money off of autonomous

Vehicles are those who recognize that the product is time when you no longer have to pay attention to road you were either gonna be sold ads or you’re gonna have bundled services that take advantage of this time that you’ve got and allow you to make some productive

Use of it so I’ll let you just think about the what that means sorry about other implications of autonomous vehicle technology so massive induced demand horrific sprawl three-hour commutes yeah that’s all easily imaginable but what about the financial impact on cities so autonomous vehicles need to be electric because electric vehicles can recharge

Themselves gas-powered vehicles can’t so gas tax revenue drops to zero parking revenue drops to zero if you’re a suburban community and you’re dependent upon commodity retail sales tax commodity retail is gone and Nicole Arco will talk a little bit more about this later so you know in addition dealing

With the public health impacts and the social dislocation impacts really profound on cities and that is very much the current trajectory that we’re on despite some of the utopian models for transit agencies I mean we’re predicting that about ten years from now the suburban transit operators will all go bankrupt and

There’s nothing that we can do to save that and that may be fine but in cities if urban transit operators go bankrupt and all urban bus service is handed over to autonomous uber that is pretty catastrophic both from an urban mobility standpoint but also very much from a social equity standpoint I’m

Particularly on the current trajectory where the technologists are basically all libertarians and don’t really care about people of limited means or who have been excluded in some ways but there’s an alternative model assuming we’re allowed the regulatory environment to make it work and that is recognized that the reason autonomous vehicles are

Going to succeed unlike other technologies is that they’re able to take advantage of all of our existing infrastructure they take advantage of public street rights-of-way which are owned by the public if the public wakes up and realizes the necessity of managing that public right-of-way for the public good and not

Just for private profit we have hope for steering the technology along a different trajectory but it means that the federal government and state governments need to define the regulatory range that municipalities have to manage their roads a regulatory authority that was taken away from cities in the late 1920s and the 1930s

By Triple A and General Motors as they went to each state legislature and took this authority away it needs to be given back and what this means is the street needs to be managed an advantage of of autonomous vehicle technology is they allow us to recognize finally that

Congestion is an economic problem and the only way to solve that is by treating roadway capacity as a limited resource and pricing it you don’t have to you know build 19th century toll booths the pricing can be built in to mobility as a service and it can vary

Based upon time of day at congestion levels and most importantly it can vary based upon the efficiency of the vehicle what we need to charge for is empty seats and empty cargo space in order to incentivize the most space efficient use of our streets and this has to be done

At the municipal level it also needs to be done at the municipal level to replace all of that lost revenue basically all of the revenue that we’re using for funding our infrastructure all of that is going away this is the model to replace it as well as to make our

Cities work so what do we need to be doing right now because of uber and lyft all cities need to be smarter about managing the curb this is one area where cities actually do have today all the authority that they need art thinking about the curb as the

Interface between AVS and the outside world and start eliminating the conflicts between a goober and lyft and cyclists and buses it’s time to eliminate minimum Parque requirements all cities have vastly more parking today than they will ever need why would you ever force the private market to build more parking than the market

Warrants get rid of the stuff like why are we still having this conversation establish data protocols this is something that nak doe has really stepped it up on and is getting cities to collude with each other in order to demand better data for managing the street from those private operators like

Uber and lyft that are profiting from the public realm critically important and we’ll talk about this later we need to friggin define what we mean by equity and align our equity goals with our budgeting our data protocols and our reporting back to the public we

Need to get real about this and it is possible to now but it means not taking a libertarian attitude about technology but an attitude around opportunity for all we’re also going to need to do a little bit of government reorganisation transit agencies are a failed business model and municipalities are going to

Need to take a lot more leadership around transit issues than they currently do either by directly partnering with public transit agencies or by subsuming those services within municipal government it also means that cities and MP OHS need to work together in order to really foster mobility as a

Service in a way that achieves the public good um transit if it hopes to survive has to lead though areas that are most ripe for autonomous vehicle technology are rural highways and Freight but also urban bus rapid transit constrained environment we’ve got the tech the computing technology right now in order

To basically map bus rapid transit corridors in three dimensions it’s the place where we need to start but it also means we need to get very very serious about all the jobs that are going to be displaced as a result of autonomous vehicle technology if transit does not

Lead on this topic now not only will those jobs be lost but so will the pensions of public agency workers so being conscious partnering with labor and being conscious about this transition if we start that now we can ensure that nobody loses their job or their pension if we delay it’s actually

The worst case scenario and far better or far worse for labor but more importantly we all need to get better at telling stories about the city of the future right now our elected officials are distracted by shiny objects the technology companies are thinking 20 and 30 years ahead whereas most of us are

Stuck thinking about the present thinking oh yeah this would be fun like it’s my you know iPhone upgrade yay and not really using game theory to think through the unintended negative consequences in the 1920s and 1930s we went through the exact same period in American history where we didn’t think

Through the unintended negative consequences of the arrival of the automobile let us please be smarter about the unintended consequences this time and I look forward to the conversation on all of these topics as we move forward today thank you [Applause] you

ID: tFDYbJYA4J4
Time: 1510144831
Date: 2017-11-08 16:10:31
Duration: 00:22:08

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