Title:Planning the Autonomous Future: Episode 5, featuring Lisa Nisenson
در این قسمت از مجموعه پادکست برنامه ریزی آینده خودمختار، جنیفر و کلی مغز لیزا نیسنسون را انتخاب می کنند تا دریابند که چرا بنیانگذار استارتاپ Great Places (https://www.greaterplaces.com/) و مشاور Alta Planning + Design (https://altaplanning.com/) فکر می کند برنامه ریزی سناریو برای طراحی آینده مستقل بسیار مهم است. Nisenson توضیح می‌دهد که برنامه‌ریزی سناریو در واقع چیست، چگونه به بخشی ضروری از جعبه ابزار برنامه‌ریز تبدیل شد و چگونه واقعاً در زمینه اتوماسیون کار می‌کند. او از افراد برجسته ای که در این زمینه کار می کنند و ابزارهایی که در حال توسعه هستند نام می برد (اما او همچنین استدلال می کند که ابزارها را کنار بگذاریم تا تفکر ما محدود نشود). در سرتاسر مکالمه، نیسنسون از ادغام این چارچوب در برنامه ریزی برای آینده مستقل استفاده می کند. جنیفر هناگان معاون مدیر تحقیقات APA و مدیر مرکز جوامع سبز است. Kelley Coyner مدیر عامل Mobility e3 است، یک شرکت رهبری حمل و نقل که به جوامع کمک می کند تا ناوگان های AV را برنامه ریزی، خلبانی و استقرار دهند. به قسمت های قبلی سریال گوش کنید: قسمت ۱: https://youtu.be/-HqU0Ck6hm0
قسمت ۲: https://youtu.be/Q6IR5gp5TPQ
قسمت ۳: https://youtu.be/kG–3OVpHiE
قسمت ۴: https://youtu.be/PZh1iW0YtDo
درباره خودروهای خودران بیشتر بدانید: https://www.planning.org/av/
به قسمت های دیگر پادکست APA گوش دهید: https://www.planning.org/podcasts/
اشتراک از طریق RSS: http://feeds.feedburner.com/americanplanningassociation (برچسب‌ها برای ترجمه برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل
قسمتی از متن فیلم: Welcome to the American Planning Association podcast this episode is part of our series on planning the autonomous future which looks at the many ways in which autonomous technology will impact our cities and regions mobility and the planning profession I’m your host Jennifer Hennigan deputy research director and manager of the
Green Communities Center at the american planning association with muse my co-host kelly corner i’m kelly coiner I’m the CEO of Mobility III a new technology consulting firm that focuses on helping communities make sure that automated mobility makes them more accessible healthier and safer places to live in this episode we’re talking to
Mobility rockstar lisa Nissen s’en founder of greater places and an advisor to alta planning and design she also holds several leadership positions and a piays sustainable communities division and smart cities Task Force no Lisa we started working together on the topic of how to plan for the AV future why it’s
Been 18 months ago and then I don’t know in dog years just something that’s been like eons ago and I just remember when we were sitting there scratching our heads trying to figure out what planners should know and be thinking about in terms of strategies you came up with a
Really cool way of doing that well thank you first and foremost for inviting me to be on the podcast I do believe that scenario planning is emerging as an essential tool and is an essential skill in every planners practice whether they’re public sector or private sector
And the reason is that there are so many lines of disruption for lack of a better word I know it seems like it’s jargon or overused but to be sincere our worlds are changing and it’s a planners job to get in front of it and help manage risk
And help to actually leverage benefits even though you don’t know exactly how things are going to go so to quote a friend she asked me so you’re just making stuff up right except she didn’t use the word stuff and so it is some educated guesses based on what you know
About communities what you know about trends and how you can forecast into the future of what things are possible what’s plausible and then you can lead conversations as to what’s preferred so part of what we need to do is to look at these lines of disruption of course
Autonomous vehicles is the one that seems to loom the largest but there’s other technology advances occurring in other matters we deal with so even parking is being disrupted right now by technology shuttles are being disrupted whether there’s a driver or not bicycles right now are one of the most
Interesting aspects of innovation right now so as planners we can’t really pick and choose we may have to stack those up together and figure out okay if we’re going to get started where do we start what’s the most achievable lowest risk highest benefit but then once we start
Adopting that what are the other interlinking parts going on so you may have bicycles shuttles and autonomous transit all at the same time and scenario planning helps you actually make stuff up with an informed guess as to how that’s going to play out in the future what’s plausible and what you want
Scenario planning isn’t a new tool no it’s not and thank you for bringing that up actually scenario planning has its roots in the military of what’s called wargames it also has its roots in the business world where a business may also see that their line of whether its
Products or services are changing with the changing times and how do they out in front of competitors so you’ve seen this actually in oil companies have been doing this for a long time it really became part of the planners too walks at the regional level around the 1980s when regional government started
Especially trying to deal with sprawl so dealing with scenarios that were a business-as-usual versus compact versus centers and corridors so you could see people begin to line up these different ways of growing and then determine what the different metrics were surrounding those different scenarios then you also
Saw the rise of some of the computer assisted tools that could also help with scenario planning in ways we didn’t have before so in general we’ve been able to at a regional level compare different scenarios that was then and this is now where we’re trying to weave in getting
Our arms around uncertainty rather than just two or three different scenarios so you know Lisa I I get to claim another title which is your colleague in crime as we look to try to figure out what to do about planning the AV future I wondered if you might tell a little bit
About how you’ve put together these scenarios and what it’s like when we go into one too what we’re trying to find out how we play it out what tools someone should have to do that so there are general templates for how you approach scenario planning but it really
All begins in what product do you want out of your scenario planning exercise and then you work backwards and structure the scenario planning exercise to deliver that end product now what do I mean by end product it could be a memo to the mayor who basically said let me
Know what is happening and how it impacts land use transportation economic development so then you’d structure a scenario planning to answer those questions it could be that you want a plan update so you would structure your sessions another way going back to our experience our very first scenario planning
Exercise was with the Ino Center for transportations convergence conference where we actually structured a workshop with about a hundred people just around a simple question and it was basically what would it take to get an autonomous shuttle on the streets in a neighborhood in Arlington Virginia
And we spent a lot of time on our first one as you always do with the first one figuring out how do we take an audience and leverage their knowledge and what they’ve learned at this car at the convergence conference into a roadmap
For how to get a v’s on the road how to get an AV shuttle that is on the road and in the end I think we did a pretty good job but the various pieces that had to come together were first and foremost number one homework you want people to
Come into the room with the ability to put together some of these different pieces and what the unknowns are so so if you ask me what the first thing a scenario planning exercise does number one is homework the second one that I thought was your idea that was really
Really good was actually having scenarios in an actual place so that people had a connection to that place and number three you had the introductory speakers actually p3 stakeholders in getting this shuttle on the streets and so we had we had David votes are from local motors
Which was looking at the ollie we had a representative from the local bed who was very interested in showcasing this innovation we had Steve Taylor who’s would lift and lift is looking at taking more than 50% of its rides to autonomous in less than five years and
It seems like we had another four nado were they there they were there that was then we had a developer who was sponsoring the project we’ve done other ones where we’ve had planners play part of the role we’ve had elected officials also play but it was a that was a lot of
Fun but I thought that was the most fun thing that we did because they popped up from the tables and they just talked about what their questions were the way that they do everyday when they’re trying to work through these problems and they had good questions for planners
About what planners needed right the second thing that is almost a thread that runs through all of these is structuring a question in several parts and the first one we did is okay we want you to spend 30 minutes brainstorming two columns the first column everything that could go right
And the second column everything that could go wrong and I think if you’ve read enough articles about the future of autonomous vehicles that’s a common way a common framework for thinking because this new technology does pose both very big benefits and very big risks and then you had shared learning around the table
As well because people came at it from very different backgrounds in geographies and that was a really enriching way to make sure that that very fast very efficient you got people’s knowledge on the table and they shared with each other so that second part asking questions and brainstorming
Was very essential and then once we got those questions are those risks and benefits on the tables we took a break and we came back and said okay what do you do about it and in this case we gave them several different structured buckets if you will of answers and it
Could be policy it could be funding it could be other regulations we looked a lot at safety as well but in that way you get those levers and people thinking about what is under your control so that you might be able to take proactive steps now or startling the
Grain groundwork so by the time autonomous vehicles come you’ve got those regulations in place you’ve got that funding inspect in place you’ve fixed your infrastructure it’s up to snuff so in general those that’s the three-part session we led at a workshop for an organization and I think that’s a
Really good example too of what we were trying to get out of it as how we structured it this was a year and a half ago and we were one way when to know what kind of questions planners had and we wanted to think about what were the strategies at different levels of
Government that might help move deployment forward safely but in our working on things since then you’ve developed other tools and I and other ways some that are much more focused I love the grocery store example can you talk about that okay so over the past year as we’ve been invited to talk with
Other groups and each one is just a little bit different academia or a local government or a transit agency that’s where it really became clear that the way you structure a scenario planning exercise varies based on who the group is and what you want out of it
So with one group we decided that we would use the scenario planning to design the grocery store of the future and a lot of this was spurred by Amazon’s recent purchase of Whole Foods and at that point a lot of light bulbs went off and people were like holy cow
Why would Amazon buy Whole Foods and then all of a sudden it started making sense about not just the future of the grocery store but the future of how people get Goods and the future of how goods get to stores just really what does the store look
Like when so much is moving to e-commerce and delivery and even if you go to a Whole Foods or other grocery store right now the pickup in the delivery those lockers and the people who are using those lockers are always busy so it has hit its stride but then
When you start forecasting in the future we started looking at well what’s gonna happen with autonomous delivery pods what’s going to happen with drones what’s going to happen as fresh vegetables come to the grocery store in ways that we can’t even imagine right now what’s going to happen when Amazon
And others are purchasing this real estate so that they can get closer to their goal of getting anything you order within an hour and for an urban planner that is both exciting and frightening at the same time because it means there’s going to be a proliferation of warehouse
Space and we think of that as industrial not neighborhood but what happens and how does that act when all of a sudden driverless are unmanned or unwomanly ever you want to call it when it makes it so cheap and easy for someone to actually order throughout the day
Instead of like the grocery store where you have to pick up a cart full of stuff so that 8:00 a.m. you’re ordering milk and then at 10:00 p.m. you run out of cereal and so all of a sudden a drone is gonna deliver Grape Nuts to your door
And think about that hairbrushes varnish whatever throughout the day and as planners what’s that experience look like in the competition for quote unquote free public rights-of-way to operate air drones ground drones delivery trucks even people on bicycles I love that idea of using the grocery store as a sort of a conversation
Starter because it’s a deceptively simple concept you know everyone said oh I understand a grocery store you but then you can easily see how that quickly spins off and do all these other really big sort of unknowns right and and really there’s this whole move towards experiential retail
And we need to start thinking about and even now it’s happening that way where my local Whole Foods has music night on Fridays where bands come in and play live music there’s happy hour every day I think they serve food it’s just gotten to be a
Place you want to go to hang out with friends or family because no matter how much we buy online we still want those Civic and those communal experiences that’s not going to go away but really where that happens how that happens is shifting under our feet and if you look
At zoning codes and allowable uses we really need to start thinking about whether or not we can create the places that people want and that will build community in an era where uses is changing rapidly the other thing that was interesting about doing the grocery store exercises Lisa literally started
It using me as a planning group of one as we as we worked on a report but then she came and did it with my AV planning and policy seminar I’ve been teaching the spring and it really also Illustrated the grocery store being a mobility hub right that there were not
Only all the mobility of things coming in and out and people being coming in and out and how they got there and what the deliveries looked like but how it intersected with transit and how it was part of placemaking in in a suburban environment that wasn’t as dense it was
It was a really interesting exercise and sort of really thinking about all the different ways that automation changes the Mobility hub and it was one of your students who came up with this great story and so we started talking about why people don’t take transit to the
Grocery store and of course it deals with having to carry around a lot of stuff some of it is heat or cold sensitive and so we were talking about all these different modes and delivery bought some things and she came up with this brilliant idea of what if
You had this personal bot assistant that went with you that was basically your shopping cart and that basically wrecked up your bill as you went up and down the aisles but as you go to the bus stop right outside if the new design of buses had almost like a click in portal where
Your delivery bot we’d click into the side of the bus when you got off it would unclick and follow you home how cool is that if you’re elderly or blind but it would be a way to and I think everything that is happening now in the world of planning is the sphere that
Autonomous vehicles are actually going to disrupt transit in a way that makes transit unviable there’s other voices that are basically saying we have a limited right-of-way in our streets we can’t build anymore so the future has got to figure out how we efficiently move all different modes
So transit still plays a gigantic role in making sure that we have that mobility we need and the experience that makes it pleasant to be traveling both in traffic and alongside traffic and underneath traffic if you think about overhead drones do you tell us a little bit about how other people are using
Scenario planning and what tools are being developed so in urban planning and some of this planning for uncertainty there have been some great leaders working with the American Planning Association so going back to 2015 Arnaud Chakraborty and Andrew Macmillan actually published in the Journal of the American Planning Association a guide an
Article scenario planning for urban planners toward a practitioners guide and that really takes you back to the foundation of people who were already planning about planning for uncertainty and even since then you’ve seen a proliferation so now the Lincoln Institute for land policy has created the consortium for scenario
Planning to take all these different innovators really in the craft who are putting together the resources that planners will need janae Futrell is in Atlanta and she has her own consulting practice called Civic sphere sphere and she really specializes in people who need to disentangle complex systems and
Figure out the future and then put those systems back together so I highly recommend some of our own APA members who are doing this fantastic work and then finally I would be remiss if I didn’t also mention Hannah twaddle who’s now with ICF and then the people behind
Urban footprint which is a new computer tool I want to take a little bit to talk about tool versus no tool because there’s a little bit of I would say uncertainty about when do you use tools and when do you not use tools according to Hannah and janae they basically say
Put away all the tools at the beginning because they can be awfully distracting they can give you a false sense of certainty and in a fast changing world if you’re relying on numbers what was an accurate number yesterday may not be an accurate number today but it really does facilitate out-of-the-box thinking if
You can put away the tools and the parameters and just think about the future where it might be going and most importantly where you want the future to go so how can you get your arms around that and steer things in a way that you get more of what you want and you
Address what you don’t want upfront well I’ll take this opportunity to give a little plug for an upcoming APA resource we’ve been working with the Lincoln Institute and also Geneva trial on creating a new research knowledge base resource collection specifically on scenario planning so APA members will be
Able to go there and find all sorts of different tools and resources to help them learn about the topic and how to apply it right and it’s good you’re doing that because this idea of of it being expensive and technical really does limit at least in some people’s minds a tool that they
Really should be using and one of my favorite uses is for civic engagement up front because scenario planning does let you enter into uncomfortable conversations about change in the future and anxiety and with so much changing it does help to invite people to a process of forecasting of homework of what you
Want in ways that our public workshops typically don’t one of the things I found over the last years a real search for how to deal with different kinds of planning questions one of them is in the area of long-range planning when we’re called upon to figure out what the
Future will look like and we don’t have the data to support it I always remember asking someone how could we integrate AV planning into your long-range planning and he said I can’t do that we don’t have the data and the problem is then the future is going to create you right
Beforehand so one way that it’s been used is to offer different scenarios for the impact on population growth and on transportation growth and on revenues that come into the city and then a really cool one that APA has helped move forward which is helping really visualize what the future might look for
Is that we’ve just with in cooperation with APA mobility e3 has created a visual simulation tool that lets someone see what an AV looks like on the street and the tool allows you to input data that contemplates different kinds of scenarios so we are able to show what it
Looks like what it looked like to have an AV that doesn’t exist in the United States now come down the street and drop people often interact with pedestrians I think that Hanna’s right that you don’t want to set people’s expectations at the beginning but at the same time it’s a
Tool of gamification to be able to think about how these different things interact in a 3d context exactly and bringing up simulations is really important because I think that’s a second and complementary tool to scenario planning is to be able to take some of Thiessen especially the ones
Where you some of the risks are pretty high and feed them into and then visualize different simulations of a versus B you can run through the whole alphabet if you want to or different packages so to speak of scenarios and that – I think simulations is a big
Skill that’s coming down so if you’re in school now are contemplating and go into planning school some of these are very important skills that are going to be needed very quickly Lisa you’ve got lots of great ideas so boil it down until one wish you’d have for scenario planning in
The a/v space this is an easy one and one that I’m passionate about it’s basically using the scenario planning process to come up with scenarios that include transitions so what is going to happen in the near term with existing and trending technology what can you forecast reasonably for emerging technology and then what
Questions do you need to ask about future technology so let’s talk about shuttles actually because right now most cities do have shuttles in the form of private shuttles so maybe Airport or hotel shuttles employer shuttles now we’re seeing the rise of something trending called micro transit where
These can be on-demand there’s one in our neighborhood in Arlington Virginia that circulates around its and the city of Los Angeles actually has an RFP out and are going to be doing pilot projects on micro transit and how they can feed people to their subway stops into
Their bus stations so that’s an example of near-term technology and coming up with the scenarios of how you might use them but at some point that also may inform where you want to deploy autonomous shuttles and then what you want to do is think about in the near
Term where are they gonna go what sort of safeguards am I going to need to plan now to get trust to actually deliver service is it going to have to have an operator and for how long is it going to have to have its own segregated route and for how long
So there’s all these different scenarios and scenarios within scenarios and then finally how do you use that process to build toward something that is all on-demand autonomous shuttle in a service area and if you want it to feed riders to transit how do you even start today to build a system that considers
That so that you can go from what you have now to what you want and the steps along the way and the different tipping points that tell you when to take bigger or different action so that’s a really good use of planning for transitions and the same exercise applies for autonomous
Vehicles for bike and bike share now which is undergoing its own rapid evolution it can apply to smart city technology but thinking about existing trending emerging and future technology along a timeline and figuring out how to plan for that gives you benefits now and lays the groundwork to limit risk in the
Future so if you’re a planner who sees the potential for this and wants to get started where do you go so APA is very good and then my startup greater places is now being built so that we can get our arms around fast-moving technology so if you think
Of house Hou is easy for interior design it’s like that for cities and it’s really a rapidfire best management practices tool so that you can stay ahead and help your clients and there’s interviews there’s research there’s examples resources kit and kaboodle so that we have it all in
One place and can really stay ahead as individuals as firms as communities and as the planning profession fantastic well thank you so much for coming and sitting down and talking with us today Thanks thanks Lisa thanks for tuning in to another episode of the American Planning Association
Podcast you can listen to past episodes at Brennan org slash podcasts you can also subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and stitcher have an idea for a podcast email them to podcast at Planning org You
ID: KZSiMRE5vxY
Time: 1534785776
Date: 2018-08-20 21:52:56
Duration: 00:29:46
